Here we go, the final portion of TSC’s 3-part season preview. We’ve already made it through the first 20 teams in Part 1 and Part 2, and we’ve saved many of the heavy hitters for this last post. Again, each team is assigned a memorable quote from Grosse Point Blank and analyzed. Feel free to chat it up and express how wrong we are in the comment section.
10. Paul: [after Jenny Slater has been dismissive towards him] I was just trying to get a little validation for my life. I guess I came up a bit SHORT!
Team: The Orlando Magic. This is in response to Stan Van Gundy using Vince Carter’s signing as an opportunity to say how underappreciated the Magic are by the media. "For a team that went to the Finals, we really haven't gotten the respect teams normally do,'' Van Gundy said. "Based upon what we did last year, I think our players do feel a little underappreciated and under respected.''
Yes, Stan. You have truly been wronged. Not one single media member stood up for you. Just find solace in the fact that you will have a league-high amount of nationally-televised games to prove us wrong.
Oh wait, the television coverage is part of the media? Like, a big part? Like almost all of it? My B.
The Magic earned this blogger’s praise last year with their chess-like approach to the game, which effectively locked down most of the NBA last season. They won 59 games, one off their franchise record from 1995-96. It was an admirable effort – they truly made a quality showing, advancing far further than many of us had expected.
But let’s look at the facts. They were a break-out team last year, and during the Finals they got a lot of coverage. With coverage comes analysis. Dwight Howard’s lack of interior game was exposed, as was the rest of the team’s reliance on the three-pointer. Force them into mid-range jumpers, and the Magic are in trouble.
Plus, this system was absolutely perfect for Hedo Turkoglu. He could sit back and nail open 3’s, and on defense he could afford to let his man drive directly into Dwight’s paint without major repercussions. (In Toronto, he won’t have that luxury. He has reached his peak, mark my words.) So, you add Vince Carter, the former freak show of a dunker. Notice I use the word “former.”
Vince isn’t coach-friendly. He’s not set-offense-friendly. He’s not friendly at all, basically. If asked to rely upon the offense to create his shots for him (as it does for the J.J. Reddick’s and Rashad Lewis’s of the world), he will defiantly say, well, you know where to shove your offense. And he will shoot off-balance twenty-footers while complaining to the refs. And he will not dunk. Trust me, he will not dunk. So have you really improved?
The lineup looks formidable, and they may win around 55 games or so again. But remember, the East is much stronger this year. Stan, sorry buddy, but the secret is out.
Last Season: 59-23 Projected: 55-27
9. Debi: What is this I'm feeling? Is it pain? Panic? Hunger? Am I hungry? Who's hungry?
Team: The Indiana Pacers. Indiana, I implore you, what exactly is your deal? Last year, I boasted that you would upset the high seeds left and right. Oh, wait, that did happen. Awesome. So, what’s with this horrible record?
As a league, we have realized that Danny Granger is a superstar. He was rewarded by an All-Star appearance and the NBA Most-Improved award, and he looks to only improve further in the coming years. But if he toils away on an underachieving team, and no one is there to see it, did he really accomplish anything?
I’m going to state it plainly: the other players on the Pacers are jokes. Space-fillers. Injury-ridden flame-outs and players who never had any promise to begin with. TJ Ford? Mike Dunleavy Jr.? Their maximum ceiling was to act as a team’s sixth-man at best, and even then only while healthy. Which they never are. Roy Hibbert showed his ability to foul out often and quickly. Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy…well, I always get them mixed together, but I know one of them shoots too many 3’s, and neither of them do much more than get offensive rebounds. Which makes sense, since there’s so many misses.
And their off-season acquisitions? An athletic head-case in Dahntay Jones, and an unathletic and under-sized post in Tyler Hansborough. At least they made it easy to root for them.
I’m on your side, Indiana. I really am. I would like nothing more than for Danny Granger to become the most successful Danny since Manning or DeVito. I really wish you had a pass-happy guard like Jameer Nelson or Stave Nash, and a post like Yao or Dwight to keep defenses honest. But you don’t. And you won’t. Your career is going to be a long and tedious splitting of triple-teams and too many 3-pointers, with a field goal % far worse than it should really be.
But no one will be watching, so you can say it just never happened. Cool?
Last Season: 36-46 Projected: 30-52
8. Paul: Okay, well, I'll see you at the "I've peaked and I'm kidding myself" party.
Team: The Cleveland Cavaliers. This quote is so appropriate, it’s spooky. Please don’t paint me as a bitter Laker fan if I say that Shaq is the worst thing that could have happened to Cleveland. Why? First, his resurgence last year was two-parts Phoenix’s training staff, who was able to paste together Grant Hill into a working unit, and one part Steve Nash getting Shaq the ball inches from the hoop. He will have neither of those in Cleveland. Instead, he has a shooting guard playing point, and team full of guys who prefer to shoot than pass.
To be simple, honest and blunt: Cleveland, Shaq is why LeBron will leave you.
Shaq will play 50 games during the regular season, maximum. He will whine and cry when he doesn’t get the ball, and make clever quips about how high his percentage is even though he creates nothing for himself, and about how he really isn’t that out of shape (even though he spent the entire summer filming non-basketball-related TV shows.) Both he and Zydrunas Ilgauskas - who had limited production last year – will miss time at some point, meaning that Anderson Varejao will have to play some center this season.
And this brings me to my favorite point: it means that Leon Powe will back up Varejao. Yes, Cleveland, Leon Powe will spend some time next year playing center on your squad, a team that hopes to win the championship within a one-year window. Him, or J.J. Hickson, but I thought you’d want the 6’9” guy with at least some Finals experience.
It’s an experiment. It’s a gamble. It’s possible that it works out for Cleveland, and O’Neal actually has enough gas left in the tank to battle Dwight in Orlando and KG/Rasheed Wallace/Kendrick Perkins in Boston. But it’s also possible – more so, in my opinion – that the whole ship crashes and burns like a Shaq-shaped Hindenburg.
LeBron is the X-factor, of course. As I said last season, he could average a triple-double this year, he could average 40 ppg, he could be the first dude to lead the league in assists and blocks in the same season. (They didn’t keep block stats for Wilt or Bill Russell.) Anything could happen with ‘Bron, and I wouldn’t be surprised. He is the best day-by-day player I’ve ever seen. Yes. The best. He doesn’t have the killer instinct or sense of the moment that MJ did or Kobe does. He doesn’t have the panache. But if you’re going to see one average game, at any point, and get your maximum money’s worth for a performance, I would pay to see LeBron. Yes I would. And that is why he may be able to nullify whatever bad ju-ju Shaq may bring, and win it all next year. But again, it’s a gamble.
So, back on point, rather than give it another try with your team of happy gunners that set the NBA ablaze last year, a team that is now motivated after it was two games from the NBA Finals…now’s the time you risk it? Really?
As a bitter Lakers fan, I guess all I have to say is…thanks!
Last Season: 66-16 Projected: 63-19
7. Debi: I should have worn a skirt.
Marty: I should have brought my gun.
Debi: What was that?
Marty: Should be fun!
Team: The Memphis Grizzlies. Did you remember they picked up Zach Randolph? Yeah, me neither! And in a full-reversal of position, I actually think this was a good move for them. Yes, Zach plays no defense whatever. True, he hardly passes the ball. But he actually has a couple low-post moves, and is a somewhat reliable scorer thanks to his years of playing on under-achieving teams and garbage minutes.
(On a related note, the Clippers turned this trade – Zach for Quentin Richardson – into Sebastian Telfair and Craig Smith. Not bad, all around. I think both teams got better for it, and it started a series of Q-Rich trades that I found hilarious, like a multi-million-dollar game of hot-potato.)
So, down-low, the Grizzlies sport Zach, Pau Gasol’s brother (who is also better than expected) and first-rounder Hasheem Thabeet. Again, not bad! That’s a solid front line. Better than Anderson Varejao and Leon Powe, right? Thabeet can provide defense as he gets more comfortable with the NBA, as he eventually morphs into a shot-block league leader. (Not yet, but one day I could see it happening.)
The combo of a shot-happy forward and a rebound-and-defense-happy center is one that can work, and both Marc Gasol and Thabeet fit that bill. Add that to the continued development of O.J. Mayo as a shooting guard (his natural position) and Mike Conley (a natural point guard – thank God they solved that guard logjam from last year). And, to round out the starting five, they have Rudy Gay, a 20 ppg forward who just turned 24, who has an ever-improving shooting stroke to compliment an all-around game that any basketball purest would love.
Not bad at all.
I can’t say I see the Grizz improving leaps and bounds this year, since it would take a couple years for this team to mature and gel correctly. Playoffs may be a pipe dream. But gone are the low-20’s win total, the trouble scoring, and the low attendance (once the city of Memphis notices).
Last Season: 23-59 Projected: 32-50
6. Marcella: Don't hang up! Wait! Did ya' read yesterday's offer?
Marty: Hold on a minute.
Marcella: It's in French. It's a Greenpeace boat. It'd be so easy.
Marty: No way! I have scruples.
Team: The Boston Celtics. Okay, stick with me on this. They haven’t improved through their trades and free agent acquisitions, but they have healed. Kevin Garnett is the most important player in the league this year, as his knee is the most important joint…aside from whatever Phil Jackson is smoking. If KG is healthy, the Celts are still favorites, end of story. Ever since they won it all in ’08, no team has yet proved it can beat a healthy Boston, and the Lakers still haven’t proved they can beat them at all. If KG is healthy, Boston gets the nod.
That’s the trouble. How healthy is KG’s knee? He’s still questionable for training camp. Even if he does play the first game of the season, how effective will he be? Rested and refreshed? Gimpy and lacking confidence? Who the hell knows?
But that’s not the secret of this season’s Boston Celtics. The secret is, it doesn’t matter if he’s healthy, as long as KG is on the floor in some form.
Even with a gimpier KG, they will be stronger this year than last, no matter what. And no, not only because of the addition of Rasheed Wallace and Shelden Williams. (They help, but that’s not what sold me.) It’s because of the continuing evolution of Rajon Rondo.
Much like Tony Parker with the Duncan-led Spurs, Rondo is poised to become an elite NBA point guard with considerably less hype than his Derrick Rose or Devin Harris-type counterparts. The improvements he showed in his game, his shot selection, his shooting touch, his defense, and his confidence during the last season were staggering to anyone who paid close attention. His stats improved across the board. He shot over 50% from the field, and a full nine percentage points better from the arc.
More steals, more rebounds, more points per game. And – get this – a full three assists per game more than last year.
And he really showed up for the playoffs. In that epic seven-game series with Chicago, he had five games over 19 points, five games with over 11 assists. That’s big-time, especially considering he is getting paid only $1 million/year (the Laker’s sixth man is making $9 million. It’s Lamar Odom, true, but he’s not even starting.) That’s a bargain at three times the price.
Anyways, I do think that the addition of Rasheed will help them during the regular season, and Shelden Williams will help with depth. Big Baby Glen Davis is a take-him-or-leave-him situation for me, but since he hit that one big shot in the playoffs last year, I guess the Celtics owed him one. So, yeah, throw him a contract, sure why not.
As for their record, I don’t think they can get much better than the 66-16 from two years ago, but the 62-20 from last year sounds about right. Depends on injuries, of course, and exactly how much crazy Rasheed Wallace has left in him.
Last Season: 62-20 Projected: 61-19
5. Debi: You know what you need?
Marty: What?
Debi: Shakabuku.
Marty: You wanna tell me what that means?
Debi: It's a swift, spiritual kick to the head that alters your reality forever.
Marty: Oh, that'd be good. I think.
Team: The New Jersey Nets. It’s hard to come up with a good story about this team. Yes, Devin Harris is promising as a playmaker, but he’s relied upon to score, and that really shouldn’t be his…thing. Vince Carter is out, not like he was trying hard anyways, and they are left to rebuild around…..?
I’ve never heard of their starting power forward. Honestly. Sean Williams. Never heard of him. That can’t be good, can it?
Okay, let’s drudge through these other players. Courtney Lee is promising:
…He can hit the three, and can obviously finish in the lane. Plus, he’s had Finals experience, and its only his second year in the league. Damn. Well, that makes him the second-most experienced player on the Nets roster. Other than…
…Rafer Alston, the Nets’ back-up point guard, even though he was starting in the Finals last year. I bet he got whiplash from getting tossed that far. The NBA Finals to the NBA dumpster? Gotta feel for the guy. But, at least it completes his Kenny Anderson transformation from streetball legend to afterthought Net point guard.
So, the roster is rounded out with Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez. I only know Yi because of how Boston fans made fun of him, and Brook because he put up some decent rookie fantasy numbers. If Brook can take his 13 and 8 and make it 16 and 10 this year with a few less fouls, it would be a start. If Yi can stay on the court, that would be an improvement too. Sigh.
Truth be told, the Nets are at least three quality players away from even making the playoffs. I mean, if their goal is to move to Brooklyn and get LeBron, they are making zero progress towards either – the arena won’t be done for another two years, and why would LeBron leave Cleveland for a supporting cast that he can’t even take to the playoffs? He’s on the verge of a championship, and he’d trade that for what is basically an expansion team?
Sorry Nets fans. This will be a tough season. There still are Nets fans, right?
Last Season: 34-48 Projected: 18-64
4. Marty: I'm a professional killer.
Paul: Do you have to do postgraduate work for that?
Team: The Atlanta Hawks. I guess they do need a little more education. I had them picked for a big leap last year, too, after that inspirational 7-game series against the eventual Champs back in 2008. The eventual result was…not so much. Though they did boast the fourth-best record in the East and made it to the second round for the first time in a decade, they were thoroughly trounced by LeBron and the Cavs in four quick, convincing games.
So, they needed a little change, some life at the end of the roster that didn’t involve Von Wafer. And this season, they added what could amount to the two most explosive/unconscious scorers in the league in Jamaal Crawford and rookie Jeff Teague. Oh, and - they added them both to their bench, while keeping their starting five. Let’s just say, the Hawks might be a formidable team this season.
Mike Bibby is proven, and is asked little other than to run the offense and hit a couple open threes. Joe Johnson is a pure scorer, a 20-ppg athlete who can also spread the floor. Mo Evans is a reliable defender and decent shooter, who is still young and spry, but NBA-refined. Josh Smith is an All-Star, a finisher and a near league-leader in both blocks and steals. And Al Hortford is a solid, young center with decent post moves, a perennial 15 and 10 guy who is still hungry after a couple injury-plagued seasons. This is a solid roster, with some special talent.
The odd thing is, the head coach is a defensive specialist. What gives?
Mike Woodson was the architect of the Detroit Pistons’ suffocating defense earlier on this decade. (Imagine what Mike D’Antoni would do with this roster.) The Hawks were middle-road teams both offensively and defensively in terms of efficiency. They can definitely become an offensive powerhouse, if Woodson pushes the pace and lets these young guns run. With the Celtics aging and the Cavs suddenly tied down with an anchor for a center, this doesn’t seem like a bad option. I would love to see a couple more Josh Smith throw-downs:
They will make a better showing in the playoffs if everyone stays healthy, but they need a little more to get past the Magic/Celtics/Cavs into the truly elite.
Last Season: 47-35 Projected: 51-31
3. Martin Q. Blank: It's a poem? See, that's the problem... express yourself, Bob! Go for it.
Bob: "When I feel... quiet... when... I feel... blue..."
Martin Q. Blank: You know, I think that is *terrific*, what you have right there. Really, I liked it, a lot. I wouldn't sell the dealership or anything but, I'm tellin' ya... it's intense!
Bob: There's... more.
Martin Q. Blank: Okay, would ya mind, just skip to the end.
Bob: To... the very end? "For a while."
Martin Q. Blank: Whew. That's good man.
Team: The Denver Nuggets. It’s always good to admit when you are wrong, and everyone, I was wrong about the Nuggets. They made a stellar showing last season, impressed everyone by their gutsy play and deep playoff run, and showed cracks in the Lakers’ armor when they met in the second round. They were probably one Anthony Carter inbounds pass away from knocking off the eventual Champs, and then, who knows? We could be praising the World Champion Magic, Hedo Turkoglu could have re-signed in the offseason, Gore would have won the presidency in 2000, and there would be no hole in the ozone layer now. So, let’s just be glad Carter tossed that pass a little high.
And I’m sold on the Chauncey Billups experiment. He provided the on-court presence that the Nuggets needed to take them from an over-confident and cocky bunch of thugs to an organized and productive basketball team, a team that believes in the system they were running.
Though they were still a little cocky. Remember when JR Smith hit that big three, and was flexing and strutting down the court, shouting at the Lakers and the crowd in Game 4? I remember saying “man, that is gonna look so stupid if the Lakers win this series.”
So, JR. How does it look? You proud you did that now?
I’m going to take this opportunity to provide a brief aside about boasts and showmanship. Never, never ever boast until the deal is done. It’s part of karma, and the Gods will find a way to strike you down if you tempt fate. You know why Kobe stopped doing that “blowing the smoke away from his burning hot hand” thing after he hit his big shots? Because every time he did it, the Lakers lost the game by some fluke or crazy play. Maybe it provides a spark under the opponents. Maybe there really is a God of “Don’t Be An Ass” (I’d like to think there is.) Whatever the reason, I would hesitate to chicken-strut unless you truly accomplished something. And as big as Game 4 is, JR, it’s still just the second round. Act like you’ve been there before.
Sorry. I think that may have pissed me off at the time.
Moving forward, I think the Nuggets have another season of high-level production in them. Birdman played out of his mind last season, and Kenyon Martin was actually productive in a set system for the first time since his second year as a pro. Nene…don’t even get me started about Nene. He could be an All-Star. And all this is before I even mention Carmelo Anthony. (Yes, he disappeared last playoffs, but what are the chances that happens again?)
They’re not the Hornets or Jazz of two years ago, since their window is exactly as big as Chauncey is old, and it may take some time before rookie Ty Lawson gets adjusted. They could get a maximum of two more years out of Chauncey before he goes back to whatever bridge he was guarding.
Just kidding, he’s not that ugly. Close, but not that bad.
Last Season: 54-28 Projected: 56-26
2. Mr. Newberry: Did I have you figured wrong?
Marty: I don't know - I mean, I hope so.
Mr. Newberry: I visualized you in a haze as one of those slackster, flannel-wearing, coffee-house misanthropes I've been seeing in Newsweek.
Team: The Toronto Raptors. What I like: their off-season pickups. They made all the right moves, took the USC standout DeMar DeRosan (who has twice as many capital letters as you) in the draft, and acquired the gunner Jarrett Jack and the near-All-Star Hedo Turkoglu off of the best seasons of their respective careers. What I don’t like: that may mean they have nowhere to go but down from here.
Hedo is somewhere between 32 and 35. We’ll never really know his true age. Even last season, we could see his trouble guarding the nimbler Trevor Ariza and other speedy guards as they put the ball on the floor. He can still be a productive player, but may have to rely on others creating shots on the perimeter for him. He definitely won’t be a 19/5/5 guy like he was two years ago.
And Jarrett Jack? He got some crazy burn on the injury-ridden Indiana Pacers last year. He’s a solid player and everything, but his stats are inflated, and the Raptors will be sorely disappointed if they are expecting 15-ppg from him. (I partly think they just wanted him on their roster for his pornstar-esque name.)
Also, I am not sold on the current roster, before the new additions. Throwing all that money at Andrea Bargnani? First, that’s a girl’s name. Second, as I said before, there’s a fundamental flaw with centers that shoot threes. (Namely, they’re not in there to rebound their misses, no matter how many they make.) Third, Bargnani will never be an All-Star, and if you’re building a team around Chris Bosh, you need a solid defender/rebounder on the other block. Imagine if Toronto got Hasheem Thabeet instead of DeMar DeRosen. Put Thabeet and Bosh at the border, I guarantee you no contraband is getting in OR out of Canada.
I’m not sure Jose Calderon is as good as his hype, but he’s most certainly a team-controlling point guard. The other additions - Amir Johnson and Marco Bellini - add depth at both guard and forward, and Johnson will provide bench energy while Bellini can pair with Bargnani for a reality show about gangly white Italians that don’t shave much.
Last Season: 33-49 Projected: 43-39, and playoffs.
And finally…
1. Victim: Whatever I'm doing you don't like... I'll stop doing it.
Marty: It's not me.
Team: The Los Angeles Lakers. You know I’m a Laker fan, so this might get lengthy. And myopic. But I’ll try to be unbiased…until we get to the Luke Walton part.
The Lakers did the right thing this off-season with the Ron Artest acquisition, and here’s why. Let’s get out the bullet points:
10. Paul: [after Jenny Slater has been dismissive towards him] I was just trying to get a little validation for my life. I guess I came up a bit SHORT!
Team: The Orlando Magic. This is in response to Stan Van Gundy using Vince Carter’s signing as an opportunity to say how underappreciated the Magic are by the media. "For a team that went to the Finals, we really haven't gotten the respect teams normally do,'' Van Gundy said. "Based upon what we did last year, I think our players do feel a little underappreciated and under respected.''Yes, Stan. You have truly been wronged. Not one single media member stood up for you. Just find solace in the fact that you will have a league-high amount of nationally-televised games to prove us wrong.
Oh wait, the television coverage is part of the media? Like, a big part? Like almost all of it? My B.
The Magic earned this blogger’s praise last year with their chess-like approach to the game, which effectively locked down most of the NBA last season. They won 59 games, one off their franchise record from 1995-96. It was an admirable effort – they truly made a quality showing, advancing far further than many of us had expected.But let’s look at the facts. They were a break-out team last year, and during the Finals they got a lot of coverage. With coverage comes analysis. Dwight Howard’s lack of interior game was exposed, as was the rest of the team’s reliance on the three-pointer. Force them into mid-range jumpers, and the Magic are in trouble.
Plus, this system was absolutely perfect for Hedo Turkoglu. He could sit back and nail open 3’s, and on defense he could afford to let his man drive directly into Dwight’s paint without major repercussions. (In Toronto, he won’t have that luxury. He has reached his peak, mark my words.) So, you add Vince Carter, the former freak show of a dunker. Notice I use the word “former.”
Vince isn’t coach-friendly. He’s not set-offense-friendly. He’s not friendly at all, basically. If asked to rely upon the offense to create his shots for him (as it does for the J.J. Reddick’s and Rashad Lewis’s of the world), he will defiantly say, well, you know where to shove your offense. And he will shoot off-balance twenty-footers while complaining to the refs. And he will not dunk. Trust me, he will not dunk. So have you really improved?
The lineup looks formidable, and they may win around 55 games or so again. But remember, the East is much stronger this year. Stan, sorry buddy, but the secret is out.
Last Season: 59-23 Projected: 55-27
9. Debi: What is this I'm feeling? Is it pain? Panic? Hunger? Am I hungry? Who's hungry?
Team: The Indiana Pacers. Indiana, I implore you, what exactly is your deal? Last year, I boasted that you would upset the high seeds left and right. Oh, wait, that did happen. Awesome. So, what’s with this horrible record?As a league, we have realized that Danny Granger is a superstar. He was rewarded by an All-Star appearance and the NBA Most-Improved award, and he looks to only improve further in the coming years. But if he toils away on an underachieving team, and no one is there to see it, did he really accomplish anything?
I’m going to state it plainly: the other players on the Pacers are jokes. Space-fillers. Injury-ridden flame-outs and players who never had any promise to begin with. TJ Ford? Mike Dunleavy Jr.? Their maximum ceiling was to act as a team’s sixth-man at best, and even then only while healthy. Which they never are. Roy Hibbert showed his ability to foul out often and quickly. Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy…well, I always get them mixed together, but I know one of them shoots too many 3’s, and neither of them do much more than get offensive rebounds. Which makes sense, since there’s so many misses.And their off-season acquisitions? An athletic head-case in Dahntay Jones, and an unathletic and under-sized post in Tyler Hansborough. At least they made it easy to root for them.
I’m on your side, Indiana. I really am. I would like nothing more than for Danny Granger to become the most successful Danny since Manning or DeVito. I really wish you had a pass-happy guard like Jameer Nelson or Stave Nash, and a post like Yao or Dwight to keep defenses honest. But you don’t. And you won’t. Your career is going to be a long and tedious splitting of triple-teams and too many 3-pointers, with a field goal % far worse than it should really be.
But no one will be watching, so you can say it just never happened. Cool?
Last Season: 36-46 Projected: 30-52
8. Paul: Okay, well, I'll see you at the "I've peaked and I'm kidding myself" party.
Team: The Cleveland Cavaliers. This quote is so appropriate, it’s spooky. Please don’t paint me as a bitter Laker fan if I say that Shaq is the worst thing that could have happened to Cleveland. Why? First, his resurgence last year was two-parts Phoenix’s training staff, who was able to paste together Grant Hill into a working unit, and one part Steve Nash getting Shaq the ball inches from the hoop. He will have neither of those in Cleveland. Instead, he has a shooting guard playing point, and team full of guys who prefer to shoot than pass.To be simple, honest and blunt: Cleveland, Shaq is why LeBron will leave you.
Shaq will play 50 games during the regular season, maximum. He will whine and cry when he doesn’t get the ball, and make clever quips about how high his percentage is even though he creates nothing for himself, and about how he really isn’t that out of shape (even though he spent the entire summer filming non-basketball-related TV shows.) Both he and Zydrunas Ilgauskas - who had limited production last year – will miss time at some point, meaning that Anderson Varejao will have to play some center this season.
And this brings me to my favorite point: it means that Leon Powe will back up Varejao. Yes, Cleveland, Leon Powe will spend some time next year playing center on your squad, a team that hopes to win the championship within a one-year window. Him, or J.J. Hickson, but I thought you’d want the 6’9” guy with at least some Finals experience.It’s an experiment. It’s a gamble. It’s possible that it works out for Cleveland, and O’Neal actually has enough gas left in the tank to battle Dwight in Orlando and KG/Rasheed Wallace/Kendrick Perkins in Boston. But it’s also possible – more so, in my opinion – that the whole ship crashes and burns like a Shaq-shaped Hindenburg.
LeBron is the X-factor, of course. As I said last season, he could average a triple-double this year, he could average 40 ppg, he could be the first dude to lead the league in assists and blocks in the same season. (They didn’t keep block stats for Wilt or Bill Russell.) Anything could happen with ‘Bron, and I wouldn’t be surprised. He is the best day-by-day player I’ve ever seen. Yes. The best. He doesn’t have the killer instinct or sense of the moment that MJ did or Kobe does. He doesn’t have the panache. But if you’re going to see one average game, at any point, and get your maximum money’s worth for a performance, I would pay to see LeBron. Yes I would. And that is why he may be able to nullify whatever bad ju-ju Shaq may bring, and win it all next year. But again, it’s a gamble.
So, back on point, rather than give it another try with your team of happy gunners that set the NBA ablaze last year, a team that is now motivated after it was two games from the NBA Finals…now’s the time you risk it? Really?
As a bitter Lakers fan, I guess all I have to say is…thanks!
Last Season: 66-16 Projected: 63-19
7. Debi: I should have worn a skirt.
Marty: I should have brought my gun.
Debi: What was that?
Marty: Should be fun!
Team: The Memphis Grizzlies. Did you remember they picked up Zach Randolph? Yeah, me neither! And in a full-reversal of position, I actually think this was a good move for them. Yes, Zach plays no defense whatever. True, he hardly passes the ball. But he actually has a couple low-post moves, and is a somewhat reliable scorer thanks to his years of playing on under-achieving teams and garbage minutes.(On a related note, the Clippers turned this trade – Zach for Quentin Richardson – into Sebastian Telfair and Craig Smith. Not bad, all around. I think both teams got better for it, and it started a series of Q-Rich trades that I found hilarious, like a multi-million-dollar game of hot-potato.)
So, down-low, the Grizzlies sport Zach, Pau Gasol’s brother (who is also better than expected) and first-rounder Hasheem Thabeet. Again, not bad! That’s a solid front line. Better than Anderson Varejao and Leon Powe, right? Thabeet can provide defense as he gets more comfortable with the NBA, as he eventually morphs into a shot-block league leader. (Not yet, but one day I could see it happening.)The combo of a shot-happy forward and a rebound-and-defense-happy center is one that can work, and both Marc Gasol and Thabeet fit that bill. Add that to the continued development of O.J. Mayo as a shooting guard (his natural position) and Mike Conley (a natural point guard – thank God they solved that guard logjam from last year). And, to round out the starting five, they have Rudy Gay, a 20 ppg forward who just turned 24, who has an ever-improving shooting stroke to compliment an all-around game that any basketball purest would love.
Not bad at all.
I can’t say I see the Grizz improving leaps and bounds this year, since it would take a couple years for this team to mature and gel correctly. Playoffs may be a pipe dream. But gone are the low-20’s win total, the trouble scoring, and the low attendance (once the city of Memphis notices).
Last Season: 23-59 Projected: 32-50
6. Marcella: Don't hang up! Wait! Did ya' read yesterday's offer?
Marty: Hold on a minute.
Marcella: It's in French. It's a Greenpeace boat. It'd be so easy.
Marty: No way! I have scruples.
Team: The Boston Celtics. Okay, stick with me on this. They haven’t improved through their trades and free agent acquisitions, but they have healed. Kevin Garnett is the most important player in the league this year, as his knee is the most important joint…aside from whatever Phil Jackson is smoking. If KG is healthy, the Celts are still favorites, end of story. Ever since they won it all in ’08, no team has yet proved it can beat a healthy Boston, and the Lakers still haven’t proved they can beat them at all. If KG is healthy, Boston gets the nod.That’s the trouble. How healthy is KG’s knee? He’s still questionable for training camp. Even if he does play the first game of the season, how effective will he be? Rested and refreshed? Gimpy and lacking confidence? Who the hell knows?
But that’s not the secret of this season’s Boston Celtics. The secret is, it doesn’t matter if he’s healthy, as long as KG is on the floor in some form.
Even with a gimpier KG, they will be stronger this year than last, no matter what. And no, not only because of the addition of Rasheed Wallace and Shelden Williams. (They help, but that’s not what sold me.) It’s because of the continuing evolution of Rajon Rondo.Much like Tony Parker with the Duncan-led Spurs, Rondo is poised to become an elite NBA point guard with considerably less hype than his Derrick Rose or Devin Harris-type counterparts. The improvements he showed in his game, his shot selection, his shooting touch, his defense, and his confidence during the last season were staggering to anyone who paid close attention. His stats improved across the board. He shot over 50% from the field, and a full nine percentage points better from the arc.
More steals, more rebounds, more points per game. And – get this – a full three assists per game more than last year.
And he really showed up for the playoffs. In that epic seven-game series with Chicago, he had five games over 19 points, five games with over 11 assists. That’s big-time, especially considering he is getting paid only $1 million/year (the Laker’s sixth man is making $9 million. It’s Lamar Odom, true, but he’s not even starting.) That’s a bargain at three times the price.
Anyways, I do think that the addition of Rasheed will help them during the regular season, and Shelden Williams will help with depth. Big Baby Glen Davis is a take-him-or-leave-him situation for me, but since he hit that one big shot in the playoffs last year, I guess the Celtics owed him one. So, yeah, throw him a contract, sure why not.
As for their record, I don’t think they can get much better than the 66-16 from two years ago, but the 62-20 from last year sounds about right. Depends on injuries, of course, and exactly how much crazy Rasheed Wallace has left in him.
Last Season: 62-20 Projected: 61-19
5. Debi: You know what you need?
Marty: What?
Debi: Shakabuku.
Marty: You wanna tell me what that means?
Debi: It's a swift, spiritual kick to the head that alters your reality forever.
Marty: Oh, that'd be good. I think.
Team: The New Jersey Nets. It’s hard to come up with a good story about this team. Yes, Devin Harris is promising as a playmaker, but he’s relied upon to score, and that really shouldn’t be his…thing. Vince Carter is out, not like he was trying hard anyways, and they are left to rebuild around…..?I’ve never heard of their starting power forward. Honestly. Sean Williams. Never heard of him. That can’t be good, can it?
Okay, let’s drudge through these other players. Courtney Lee is promising:
…He can hit the three, and can obviously finish in the lane. Plus, he’s had Finals experience, and its only his second year in the league. Damn. Well, that makes him the second-most experienced player on the Nets roster. Other than…
…Rafer Alston, the Nets’ back-up point guard, even though he was starting in the Finals last year. I bet he got whiplash from getting tossed that far. The NBA Finals to the NBA dumpster? Gotta feel for the guy. But, at least it completes his Kenny Anderson transformation from streetball legend to afterthought Net point guard.
So, the roster is rounded out with Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez. I only know Yi because of how Boston fans made fun of him, and Brook because he put up some decent rookie fantasy numbers. If Brook can take his 13 and 8 and make it 16 and 10 this year with a few less fouls, it would be a start. If Yi can stay on the court, that would be an improvement too. Sigh.Truth be told, the Nets are at least three quality players away from even making the playoffs. I mean, if their goal is to move to Brooklyn and get LeBron, they are making zero progress towards either – the arena won’t be done for another two years, and why would LeBron leave Cleveland for a supporting cast that he can’t even take to the playoffs? He’s on the verge of a championship, and he’d trade that for what is basically an expansion team?
Sorry Nets fans. This will be a tough season. There still are Nets fans, right?
Last Season: 34-48 Projected: 18-64
4. Marty: I'm a professional killer.
Paul: Do you have to do postgraduate work for that?
Team: The Atlanta Hawks. I guess they do need a little more education. I had them picked for a big leap last year, too, after that inspirational 7-game series against the eventual Champs back in 2008. The eventual result was…not so much. Though they did boast the fourth-best record in the East and made it to the second round for the first time in a decade, they were thoroughly trounced by LeBron and the Cavs in four quick, convincing games.So, they needed a little change, some life at the end of the roster that didn’t involve Von Wafer. And this season, they added what could amount to the two most explosive/unconscious scorers in the league in Jamaal Crawford and rookie Jeff Teague. Oh, and - they added them both to their bench, while keeping their starting five. Let’s just say, the Hawks might be a formidable team this season.
Mike Bibby is proven, and is asked little other than to run the offense and hit a couple open threes. Joe Johnson is a pure scorer, a 20-ppg athlete who can also spread the floor. Mo Evans is a reliable defender and decent shooter, who is still young and spry, but NBA-refined. Josh Smith is an All-Star, a finisher and a near league-leader in both blocks and steals. And Al Hortford is a solid, young center with decent post moves, a perennial 15 and 10 guy who is still hungry after a couple injury-plagued seasons. This is a solid roster, with some special talent.The odd thing is, the head coach is a defensive specialist. What gives?
Mike Woodson was the architect of the Detroit Pistons’ suffocating defense earlier on this decade. (Imagine what Mike D’Antoni would do with this roster.) The Hawks were middle-road teams both offensively and defensively in terms of efficiency. They can definitely become an offensive powerhouse, if Woodson pushes the pace and lets these young guns run. With the Celtics aging and the Cavs suddenly tied down with an anchor for a center, this doesn’t seem like a bad option. I would love to see a couple more Josh Smith throw-downs:
They will make a better showing in the playoffs if everyone stays healthy, but they need a little more to get past the Magic/Celtics/Cavs into the truly elite.
Last Season: 47-35 Projected: 51-31
3. Martin Q. Blank: It's a poem? See, that's the problem... express yourself, Bob! Go for it.
Bob: "When I feel... quiet... when... I feel... blue..."
Martin Q. Blank: You know, I think that is *terrific*, what you have right there. Really, I liked it, a lot. I wouldn't sell the dealership or anything but, I'm tellin' ya... it's intense!
Bob: There's... more.
Martin Q. Blank: Okay, would ya mind, just skip to the end.
Bob: To... the very end? "For a while."
Martin Q. Blank: Whew. That's good man.
Team: The Denver Nuggets. It’s always good to admit when you are wrong, and everyone, I was wrong about the Nuggets. They made a stellar showing last season, impressed everyone by their gutsy play and deep playoff run, and showed cracks in the Lakers’ armor when they met in the second round. They were probably one Anthony Carter inbounds pass away from knocking off the eventual Champs, and then, who knows? We could be praising the World Champion Magic, Hedo Turkoglu could have re-signed in the offseason, Gore would have won the presidency in 2000, and there would be no hole in the ozone layer now. So, let’s just be glad Carter tossed that pass a little high.And I’m sold on the Chauncey Billups experiment. He provided the on-court presence that the Nuggets needed to take them from an over-confident and cocky bunch of thugs to an organized and productive basketball team, a team that believes in the system they were running.
Though they were still a little cocky. Remember when JR Smith hit that big three, and was flexing and strutting down the court, shouting at the Lakers and the crowd in Game 4? I remember saying “man, that is gonna look so stupid if the Lakers win this series.”So, JR. How does it look? You proud you did that now?
I’m going to take this opportunity to provide a brief aside about boasts and showmanship. Never, never ever boast until the deal is done. It’s part of karma, and the Gods will find a way to strike you down if you tempt fate. You know why Kobe stopped doing that “blowing the smoke away from his burning hot hand” thing after he hit his big shots? Because every time he did it, the Lakers lost the game by some fluke or crazy play. Maybe it provides a spark under the opponents. Maybe there really is a God of “Don’t Be An Ass” (I’d like to think there is.) Whatever the reason, I would hesitate to chicken-strut unless you truly accomplished something. And as big as Game 4 is, JR, it’s still just the second round. Act like you’ve been there before.
Sorry. I think that may have pissed me off at the time.
Moving forward, I think the Nuggets have another season of high-level production in them. Birdman played out of his mind last season, and Kenyon Martin was actually productive in a set system for the first time since his second year as a pro. Nene…don’t even get me started about Nene. He could be an All-Star. And all this is before I even mention Carmelo Anthony. (Yes, he disappeared last playoffs, but what are the chances that happens again?)
They’re not the Hornets or Jazz of two years ago, since their window is exactly as big as Chauncey is old, and it may take some time before rookie Ty Lawson gets adjusted. They could get a maximum of two more years out of Chauncey before he goes back to whatever bridge he was guarding.
Just kidding, he’s not that ugly. Close, but not that bad.
Last Season: 54-28 Projected: 56-26
2. Mr. Newberry: Did I have you figured wrong?
Marty: I don't know - I mean, I hope so.
Mr. Newberry: I visualized you in a haze as one of those slackster, flannel-wearing, coffee-house misanthropes I've been seeing in Newsweek.
Team: The Toronto Raptors. What I like: their off-season pickups. They made all the right moves, took the USC standout DeMar DeRosan (who has twice as many capital letters as you) in the draft, and acquired the gunner Jarrett Jack and the near-All-Star Hedo Turkoglu off of the best seasons of their respective careers. What I don’t like: that may mean they have nowhere to go but down from here.Hedo is somewhere between 32 and 35. We’ll never really know his true age. Even last season, we could see his trouble guarding the nimbler Trevor Ariza and other speedy guards as they put the ball on the floor. He can still be a productive player, but may have to rely on others creating shots on the perimeter for him. He definitely won’t be a 19/5/5 guy like he was two years ago.
And Jarrett Jack? He got some crazy burn on the injury-ridden Indiana Pacers last year. He’s a solid player and everything, but his stats are inflated, and the Raptors will be sorely disappointed if they are expecting 15-ppg from him. (I partly think they just wanted him on their roster for his pornstar-esque name.)Also, I am not sold on the current roster, before the new additions. Throwing all that money at Andrea Bargnani? First, that’s a girl’s name. Second, as I said before, there’s a fundamental flaw with centers that shoot threes. (Namely, they’re not in there to rebound their misses, no matter how many they make.) Third, Bargnani will never be an All-Star, and if you’re building a team around Chris Bosh, you need a solid defender/rebounder on the other block. Imagine if Toronto got Hasheem Thabeet instead of DeMar DeRosen. Put Thabeet and Bosh at the border, I guarantee you no contraband is getting in OR out of Canada.
I’m not sure Jose Calderon is as good as his hype, but he’s most certainly a team-controlling point guard. The other additions - Amir Johnson and Marco Bellini - add depth at both guard and forward, and Johnson will provide bench energy while Bellini can pair with Bargnani for a reality show about gangly white Italians that don’t shave much.
Last Season: 33-49 Projected: 43-39, and playoffs.
And finally…
1. Victim: Whatever I'm doing you don't like... I'll stop doing it.
Marty: It's not me.
Team: The Los Angeles Lakers. You know I’m a Laker fan, so this might get lengthy. And myopic. But I’ll try to be unbiased…until we get to the Luke Walton part.The Lakers did the right thing this off-season with the Ron Artest acquisition, and here’s why. Let’s get out the bullet points:
-You need a certain level of crazy on any team. You need someone who is willing to think outside the box, to get in the face of someone who may be bullying you. The Lakers got tougher last year, but were still susceptible to runs from opponents when they got physical. The Finals two years ago was the perfect example. Leon Powe will not get twenty-someodd points on a team with Ron Artest on it.
-You can’t doubt his motivation. It is obvious he cares about winning, which actually trumps a lot of his “question mark” characteristics for me. I just want to see him keep that mindframe as the Lake Show progresses deeper into the playoffs. You’re a role player now, Ron. Take a page out of Horry’s playbook and understand that you may need to stand on the weak side and wait for the ball in order for your team to win.
-He can shoot, and his FG% is deceiving. On Sacramento and later on with Houston, he was often the playmaker and the bail-out guy when the shot clock got low. His threes were usually contested, and his drives were against double teams, since there were fewer other options. Obviously, that will happen less this go-round. I am interested to see what his three-point percentage looks like at the end of the year, and I’d wager it’s significantly better.
-Finally, Trevor Ariza was a nice role player, and definitely came up big for us many times throughout the last two seasons. I will miss him. But he will never be an All-Star. The Lakers are getting an All-Star with no injury history at the age of 29 for a relatively cheap contract, a four-time Defensive First Team selectee and former Defensive Player of the Year. Trev, well, just can’t match up with that.
So, goodbye Trevor Ariza. I’ll honor your departure with my favorite Trev moment, a game I was actually at, on Christmas Day two years ago:
Also, resigning Lamar Odom was just as important to the Laker’s repeat efforts as anyone. (Yes, Pau, Phil, Kobe, anyone.) He is an integral part of the team, and when properly motivated, can provide the versatility on defense and the fluidity on offense that makes the Lakers tick. It is instantly obvious in the games Lamar misses. The ball stagnates, the weak side doesn’t rotate, and things just look disjointed.
I’ve always maintained that Lamar could be the best player in the league if he tried. Of course, I also proposed we trade him for Richard Jefferson last season. But if your team doesn’t rely on his production, and uses it instead as a bonus (a “turbo-boost” for slow or ineffective nights) he can be just as valuable as any other player out there. Plus, he can man up against centers and shooting guards alike, something the Richard Jeffersons of the league can’t claim to do.
Real question marks, in my mind, are Andrew Bynum, Luke Walton, and Jordan Farmar. These are three players that can make or break the season. For Bynum, he was at his most effecting setting screens and flashing to the rim, getting offensive boards and providing help-side D. But after his injury, he started trying to create for himself, taking short jumpers and holding the ball a bit too long. If he can let Kobe’s drives and Pau’s court vision create the shots for him, he will have a much more pleasant time out there, and Phil will probably let him see more time.Luke can’t really run anymore. Yeah, I know, it’s sad. He has to rely on up-fakes and floaters in order to get his points. But he can still be a helpful cog in the offense. If he works on his shooting stroke this offseason, and can provide a reliable threat from the arc, he can take Trevor’s spot as the open man outside. And he still has his excellent passing skills, which almost makes up for the fact that an injured turtle could blow by him at this point.
And Farmar, unless he has a career year, is done as a Laker. Shannon Brown’s signing pretty much validates that he is the heir apparent to Derek Fisher’s spot. Besides, Brown is a better shooter, defender, and athlete than Farmar could ever be. Either Farmar starts making everything from outside, or it’s time to look for a trade. Which is also sad, but sometimes a third point guard is like a third nipple…it’s neat, but really, how much do you use it?
As for Kobe, the most polarizing figure on the sports landscape this side of Michael Vick, everyone is making issue of his rising odometer. And it is completely true: Kobe is on the trailing end of his career. It’s undeniable. But is he going to force the issue and hoist 28 shots a game, breaking set offenses as he did in 2004? Or is he going to pace his game, save energy and choose his spots as he did last year, taking a page directly out of Jordan’s 1998 handbook? I believe the latter is true. His production is sure to go down this year, but I’m not sure his efficiency will.
Kobe will still go for 50 at some point this season, and it is interesting to see what he can do with a full summer’s rest for the first time in two years. But I don’t expect him to average over 26 ppg. Hopefully, he won’t have to.The Lakers, as the defending champs, have the largest target on their backs this season. They also made arguably the biggest off-season move, and as they are the Lakers, the coverage they receive this next season will possibly be the most in their history. Every game will be dissected, every minor quibble blown out of proportion. But they are also the favorites out of the West, and it seems that anything less than a back-to-back will be considered a failure.
The bar is high. But the talent is obvious. And as for the rest of the teams, we here at TSCblogs are excited to see how it all plays out.
Last Season: 65-17 Projected: 69-13
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