The Huge Pre-Season Pre-Rankings (Part 1)

The Huge Pre-Season Pre-Rankings: 2008-09

As of right now, I’m sitting in front of the great and historic Santa Monica Pier.  The sun is shining, the ferris wheel is spinning, and the people are cheerful…and tan.  “American Girl” by Estelle and Kanye is blasting from a set of speakers somewhere out of sight, but lately, it seems to be the soundtrack of LA.  It’s always playing somewhere.  Later tonight, I’ll make the trek to the Staples Center to catch a couple preseason games

Finally, the preseason has started.  Finally, we can see what we have before us.  To paraphrase the great Gilbert Arenas, that’s the great thing about the NBA: everything is wiped back to zero, every accomplishment erased, everything starts anew.  It’s like The Second Coming, every damn season.

And man, am I hyped.

* * *

There are 30 teams in the NBA, each with a distinct fan base that will either be overly enthused or pissed over the way their team’s season is going.  This column is for those fans, to give them some idea of what to expect for the forthcoming season.  You know, give them hope before anyone tears an MCL or gets arrested. 

As for this year, the Lakers and Celtics won’t surprise anyone.  That’s what comes with the conference championship.  They know what works for their team, and I expect there will be less sway in their records than most other teams.  

But what about Houston, and the addition of Ron Artest?  What about the numerous coaching changes in Detroit, Charlotte, and New York?  Unless you have NBA League Pass (and if you do…can I come over?) you probably won’t see most of these teams but once or twice this year.  These rankings are meant to be used as a guide, what to expect.  

So, if the Knicks are spanking your Kings, or two unknown Pacers light you up for 70 points combined, you will be ready.  (Not happy, but ready.)

Of course, these rankings do not account for injuries, trades, or acts of sabotage. That being said, I give you…the Huge Pre-Season Pre-Rankings.  

The Pleasant Surprises:

Indiana Pacers - This is a team in mid-transformation.  Gone are the days of Jamaal Tinsley (even if he is still technically on the roster) and Jermaine O’Neal and the inside-outside game.  Their future lies with Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy Jr (who I went to school with, and is quite the sharp dresser.)   With the additions of T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack, you have four quality offensive weapons, from both inside and out.   What about boards?  Well, that’s all Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy have on their resume. That, and 13 feet 10 inches of pure whiteness.

But they’re bench is better than expected, deeper than in previous years.  In an East that is up for grabs, they’re going to catch a lot of teams sleeping on them.  No way they can match up to a Detroit or Boston team in the playoffs, but just getting there is a bonus this season.  

TSC Projection: 41-41 (+5 games from last season), 7th in East 

New York Knicks - Strange, right?  What could I possibly see in the Knicks to get excited about?  Well, first, they were the perennial doormat for the last couple seasons, a team that gave up on themselves.  But listen: Mike D’Antoni is the real deal.  He’s been doing this for long enough.  Once he convinces the Knicks to start playing the right way (I’m guessing mid-December, right when Jared Jefferies comes back) they will start to show some pride in their play.  

Chris Duhon is a great step up at point (especially for a second try at the 7-seconds or less offense) and David Lee will provide the stability and hustle in the frontcourt that was lacking in the previous years, when they steadfastly refused to start him.  Their young addition (Wilson Chandler)  looks better and better in preseason play, and they are much deeper than your Bobcats or Wizards, who I believe will be duking it out for that 8th spot in the East.   They still have a way to go, though, before you see a postseason victory.  Next year, they have a shot at over .500 ball, which should have the Big Apple buzzing.  

TSC Projection: 36-47 (+13 games from last season), 10th in East

Atlanta Hawks - Word has it that Mike Bibby was ailing last year.  Al Hortford was a rookie, and has much room to improve.  Joe Johnson is in his prime, and Josh Smith is only 22.  This team is young and confidant, with incredible offensive and defensive tools, and a swagger that is more befitting to veterans.  If they remain together, the sky is the limit for this crew…this is just the logical maturation process, translated in victories. The 7-game series with Boston last year was no fluke.  

The addition of Mo Evans will definitely help them with 3-point accuracy and defense, and give Marvin Williams competition for the starting SF spot, which is never bad.  I would like to see better back-up big men, but you can’t argue with an offense that can rely on scoring from all its positions. If you are picking a fantasy basketball team, Hortford will get you a reliable 15 points and 9 boards for a late pick.

TSC Projection: 46-36 (+9 from last season), 5th in East

Denver Nuggets - I’ll say it now.  Everyone is overreacting to the loss of Marcus Camby.  The reason the Nuggets were all confused last year was because the team hadn’t figured out quite what they did well.  Camby is the key PF of a defensive-minded unit, but he was stuck on a scoring-heavy team.  He got a bazillion blocks off of help-side defense, because his guys were already running the other way.  If George Karl can get Allen Iverson to accept playing point, he can move JR Smith to shooting guard and get a team on the floor featuring Kenyon Martin and Carmelo Anthony that is perfect for a run-and-gun offense.  And in the high altitude of Colorado, it might not be a bad idea.  

Also, there is talk of a trade for Jamaal Tinsley, who would be the perfect set-up guy for a group of street-cred starters like Iverson, Martin, Anthony, and JR Smith.  They just need to get a center with a willingness to throw down.  Perhaps “The Birdman” Chris Anderson?  He looked good in preseason, although he is by nature a SF/PF.

I put these guys in my “Pleasant Surprises” category because many of the experts expect them to drop a good 5 games off their last season total.  I just don’t see that happening. Of course, I don't see much of a jump either.

TSC Projection: 51-31 (+1 from last season), 5th in the West 

Charlotte Bobcats - Maybe I’m putting too much stock in Larry Brown.  But it seems they have the nucleus in Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, and Emeka Okafor that, if motivated correctly, can push to that .500 level.  Last year they shook of the “little step-brother” mentality of the starter franchise with the addition of J-Rich, and if Wallace doesn’t knock himself out again they will be a playoff team.  They are way under the salary cap, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they throw some cash at a valuable free agent before the season starts.  

I mean, it all adds up.  Defense?  Check.  Outside threats?  Check.  Low post presence?  Check.  Plus, Sean May will be valuable coming off of his injury.  (He was a 15-6 guy before the injury.)  These guys will be the surprise of the league this season.  

TSC Projection: 40-42 (+8 from last season), 8th in the East

The Angry Fan Base: 

Los Angeles Clippers - Someone explain to me how Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby can co-exist in the same front court, with Al Thorton manning the SF spot.  You are starting three power forwards who never get plays called for them! Kaman is an excellent all-around player, especially since he came off his ADD prescriptions, but he’s not an efficient scorer.  Thorton has learned a nice jumper, but he's more of a hustle guy than a "Go-To" guy.  Either Baron Davis averages 40 and 10 (which he cannot do) or the Clips are in trouble.  So, we have Baron, as a career 41% shooter…and no second scoring option.  This is progress?

They don’t have the transition game with those big, slow bodies, and they don’t have a half-court game with such little inside and outside threat.  Rookies Gordon and Hart are gunners (and impressed many over the summer) but I don’t consider them outside threats.  They will improve, if only because last season was so dismal.  They made it to the “Angry Fan Base” section because of the hoopla over their new acquisitions, even though they should improve off last season’s dismal showing.  But if they made no changes at all, they could have been back in the playoffs.

(Personal thought: perhaps David Sterling, being the shrewd business man he is, made the lateral move to get Baron and Camby just to keep the product on the court "new" - not necessarily "good" - in order to keep selling tickets in this troubling economy.  I wouldn't put it past him.)

TSC Projection: 32-50 (+9 from last season), 12th in the West

Phoenix Suns - I feel for Suns fans.  With Steve Nash getting injured more and more frequently (word has it he sprained his ankle after I wrote this!) and Shaq missing his quota of 25 games (and messing up the flow when he is playing), it means you are relying on Grant Hill and Amare Stoudamire to stay healthy.  Trouble.  And even if all four of them play every game, I still doubt they can hang with the younger, quicker teams like the Nuggets, Blazers, Lakers, and Hornets.  (Ever thought that would be said about a Steve Nash-run team?)  

And where is their youth movement?  Brook Lopez and Alando Tucker?  They are missing a major piece.  I’d say an athletic small forward (who might be residing in Miami currently), but that would just be mean, and I’m not that kind of guy.

Amare is going to have a killer year, but they are 2 seasons away from being lottery bound…again.  I see a lot of parallels to the Dallas Cowboys this season, injuries and all.  

TSC Projection: 43-39 (-12 from last season), 9th in the West

Orlando Magic - I would like to proclaim the genius of Stan Van Gundy to the world.  The loveable Ron Jeremy doppelganger was able to pick up this Magic team after the Billy Donovan fiasco, and actually get them to play motivated, unselfish basketball…much like a college team.  No egos on this team.  Their play was balanced, well-organized, and efficient.   It caught many by surprise.

Now, insert Wayne’s World’s “Tiddly-oop, tiddly-oop”.

It was an aberration.  Once teams realized that they had to show up against Orlando, the Magic mountain began to crumble a bit.  Though it’s still an impressive win total, I don’t see any way they can replicate it this season.  

Dwight Howard, while still a freak of nature, has only a limited low-post game (with a reliance on falling-away hook shots), and the rest of the team relies too heavily upon their outside shooting.  Even with the addition of Michael Pietrus, they are still weak on the bench, having lost Mo Evans.  The East is stronger this year, and someone has to suffer. 

TSC Projection: 45-37 (-8 from last season), 6th in the East

Toronto Raptors - “Welcome to the Great Jermaine O’Neal Experiment.”  To be honest, I don’t see where Toronto’s points are coming from.  If they are really willing to dive into O’Neal being their low post threat (along with Chris Bosh), it means they have to change their whole dynamic, their style of play.  They have to slow it down, and really give O’Neal and Bosh the touches (like 15+ shots per) down low.  Though O’Neal did look limber in the preseason, he is playing with a metal gurney on his knee.  

This is not a system that Jose Calderon and Candice Parker’s brother thrive in.  Starting Jamario Moon, the poster child for Red Bull, at SF does not bode well for this system either.  He’s a jumper, not a bruiser, and his jumpshot needs work for him to punish defenders for doubling down low.  Either Bosh has a career season (which he may, regardless) or Toronto is on the outside looking in.  

TSC Projection: 33-49 (-8 from last season), 11th in the East

Golden State Warriors - They lost the absolute perfect point guard for their system to the Clippers.  They lost the second-most-perfect guard for half the season to a moped injury (har!)  They are left with Steven Jackson andAl Harrington, two perennial “third options” on any team, and Fantasy All-Star Career Garbage Points Leader Corey Maggette to handle the offense.  As for the defense?  Well, you have…hrm….Ronnie Tur…hm, no not him,…Andris Bied…err…

Don Nelson’s teams are trigger-happy.  But these teams need more time than usual to mesh, to figure out a system for all those shots.  I see no harmony or cohesion on this Warriors team on either end of the court.  The lone hope they have is whether Marcus Williams can come back from his injury to play out of his mind while Monte Ellis is gone, and give them a nice small-ball mix to run with.  Otherwise, look out below.

TSC Projection: 33-49 (-15 from last year), 11th in the West

Washington Wizards: I hate to be short in my analysis, but I expect the same product on the court this year as last year, except slightly worse.  Lots of trash talk, under .500 play, early playoff exit.  Either DeShawn Stevenson proves himself (in terms of FG%, assists, and steals) as a starting point guard, or it is over for him in this league.  Same goes for Andray Blache, during Brendan Haywood’s absence - this is the perfect time for him to prove himself, but if he keeps missing those half-foot putbacks and missing foul shots by three feet, it's time to move on in the front court.

Now is the time to put up or shut up for the Wizards.  Caron Butler will kill himself trying to get to that .500 mark, and Jamison will give you 60 games of smooth 18 and 6, but in this East, staying still is moving backwards.  If Gilbert comes back with any mojo whatsoever, they might make a push for the playoffs, but their window of competing with the East elite is over.

TSC Projection: 38-44 (-5 from last season), 9th in the East

Little Improvement, Little Drop: 

Miami Heat - Now is the time for the Heat to figure out just what they have, so they can move forward in the next couple seasons.  It’s like in poker, raising small just to see what kind of table you are playing with, check-raising from time to time to see reactions.  Once this roster fills out, there is a potent, young team that can do some damage here.

Michael Beasley will have to learn the NBA and stay out of trouble in Miami, which is a bigger deal than you think.  He should take this time to learn a jumper.  Dwayne Wade will have to stay healthy and ease off the throttle a bit, and perhaps teach Beasley how to be an effective finisher.  And finally, they will have to appease Shawn Marion so he doesn’t become a distraction, before they can get rid of him and free up some salary room at the end of the season.  They will then grow their bench with draft picks this upcoming summer, and a free-agent signing next year.  But for now, playoffs are a pipe dream.  First on their priority list should be getting Beasley and Wade on the same page, and putting shooters and big men around them.  

TSC Projection: 20-62 (+5 from last season), 15th in the East

Chicago Bulls - Four words: starting center Joakim Noah.  As good as your depth chart looks for the other four positions, there is no way you can advance in this league with a second-year, back-up power forward becoming your starting center.  No wonder new coach Vinny Del Negro has them running 4-hour practices.  They’d better get some endurance, because playing small is their only option.  

I think the loss of Chris Duhon hurts their explosiveness.  I think that Kirk Hinrich has to regain the form of five years ago, when his turnovers were down and his FG% was up.  I would consider placing Andres Nocioni or newly drafted Derrick Rose at shooting guard instead of Larry Hughes.  But hey, small ball is in.  It’s all the rage.  All the girls love the small ball.  

TSC Projection: 29-53 (-4 from last season), 13th in the East

Detroit Pistons - Pencil the Pistons in for 50 wins again this year.  The aging of Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess is countered by the progress of Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson, so it looks like Detroit is attempting a youth movement while maintaining their starting 5 - a rare feat, if it works.  However, I think Detroit’s window has closed for another championship.  They can’t beat Boston, they can’t beat Cleveland, and they definitely can‘t beat whoever comes out of the West.  And the rest of the East keeps getting better…and younger.  

So if you are Joe Dumars, what do you do?  Fire sale, or keep trying?  I think this is the last year you see your 2004 Champions in top form.

TSC Projection: 53-29 (-6 from last season), 2nd in the East

Boston Celtics - “They are who we thought they were.  We let them off the hook!”  Let me put it this way: whenever an opposing team goes into Boston Garden, they now know exactly what they are up against.  But it doesn’t mean they can stop the impending blowout.  They just know it’s coming.  

Look for Boston to lead the league in victories again this year.  Maybe only a couple games off of last year’s pace.  Which is not a bad prospect. Remember, people thought they may challenge the Bulls’ season record for wins.

I’d like to see more development in the bit players’ games, from Leon Powe to Big Baby Davis, and especially to Rajon Rondo.  This should be his first season of big-time play.  (Think back to the early career of Tony Parker.  It’s a very similar case with Rondo…which should be particularly exciting for Rondo.)

The playoffs this season will be more difficult for them, and they should focus on remaining healthy up until that point.

TSC Projection: 63-19 (-3 from last season), 1st in the East

Sacramento Kings - The down side?  No more Ron Artest.  The plus side?  No more Ron Artest.  That guy is a flow killer, even when he’s doing everything right.  He isn’t a natural scorer, but shoots just as often.  Houston will find that out soon enough.  

As for current Kings, this is going to be the Kevin Martin show, because they really don’t have any other choice.  He and Mikki Moore will have stand-out seasons, but you can’t hope for much more from such a dwindling bench.  And I’m not buying in on the Brad Miller resurgence.  We’ve been hearing that for like 5 years in a row.  

They have a crew of over-achievers, guys who play their butts off, but just don’t have the necessary stuff to bring them over the top.  

TSC Projection: Kings: 33-49 (-5 from last season), 10th in the West

Click HERE for Part 2 and award projections